Chinese military minds studying Ukraine war worry about US missiles, Starlink By Reuters

Eduardo Baptista and Greg Troode

BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) – China shot down Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit and shoulder-launched Javelin tanks and helicopters, according to a Chinese military researcher studying Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. We need the ability to defend against missiles. Clashes with US-led forces in Asia.

A Reuters review of nearly 100 articles in more than 20 defense journals found the impact of U.S. weapons and technology that could be deployed against Chinese forces in the war over Taiwan across China’s military-industrial complex. Efforts to scrutinize the

The Chinese-language magazine, which also explores Ukrainian sabotage, reflects the work of hundreds of researchers across a network of People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-affiliated universities, state-owned arms manufacturers and military intelligence think tanks.

While Chinese officials avoid openly critical comments on Moscow’s actions and battlefield performance in an effort to call for peace and dialogue, published journal articles have been more conservative in their assessment of Russia’s shortcomings. Be frank.

China’s defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the researchers’ findings. Reuters was unable to determine the extent to which the conclusions reflected the thinking of China’s military leaders.

Two military attachés and another diplomat familiar with China’s defense studies said the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, led by President Xi Jinping, ultimately set and directed the need for the investigation. I wanted to grab The three and other diplomats spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss their work publicly.

A U.S. defense official told Reuters the war in Ukraine provided insight to China, although the situation in Taiwan was different.

“An important lesson for the world to learn from the swift response of the international community to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is that it will take increasingly concerted action against aggression,” the official said. Address concerns raised in Chinese studies of certain U.S. capabilities.

starlink stare

Six papers by PLA researchers show that Starlink, a satellite network developed by Elon Musk’s U.S.-based space exploration company SpaceX, was killed by Ukrainian forces amid a Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian power grid. It highlights China’s concerns over its role in securing communications between

“The superior performance of ‘Starlink’ satellites in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict will certainly encourage the United States and Western countries to use ‘Starlink’ extensively,” said researchers at the Army Engineering College. A September article I co-wrote said: of the People’s Liberation Army.

The authors believe it is “urgent” for China, which aims to develop its own similar satellite network, to find a way to shoot down or neutralize Starlink. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.

The conflict has also forged an apparent consensus among Chinese researchers that drone warfare deserves greater investment. I vowed to keep it under my control.

“These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as the ‘door kickers’ of future warfare,” said an article in the Tank Warfare Journal published by state-owned arms manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the People’s Liberation Army. He pointed out that it explained the ability to neutralize the defense of .

Some magazines are run by local research institutes, while others are official publications of central government agencies, such as the Directorate General of Defense Science, Technology and Industry, which oversees the production of weapons and the upgrading of the military.

An article in the regime’s official journal in October said that China would increase its military equipment, given the “severe damage to Russian tanks, armored vehicles and warships” inflicted by Ukrainian fighter-operated Stinger and Javelin missiles. He pointed out that the ability to defend against

Collin Koh, a Security Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the Ukrainian conflict has been driven by China’s efforts to develop cyberwarfare models and find ways to better protect its armor from modern Western weaponry. He said it bolstered years of effort by military scientists.

“Starlink is really new for them to worry about. It’s a military application of advanced civilian technology that they can’t easily replicate,” Coe said.

Beyond technology, Koh said he was not surprised that Ukrainian special forces operations inside Russia were being studied by China, which, like Russia, moves its troops and weapons by rail.

Despite rapid modernization, the PLA lacks recent combat experience. China’s invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was the last major conflict, a conflict that lasted into the late 1980s.

The review of the Chinese magazine by Reuters comes amid concerns in the West that China may be planning to provide lethal aid to Russia against an attack on Ukraine. Beijing denies.

Taiwan and Beyond

Some Chinese articles emphasize Ukraine’s relevance, perhaps given the risk of regional conflict between China and the United States and its allies over Taiwan. The United States has a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether to intervene militarily to defend Taiwan, but is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with means of self-defense.

US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns said that President Xi Jinping has ordered the military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, while China’s leaders are likely to be in Russia’s Ukraine. He pointed out that he felt uneasy about his experience.

An article published in October by two researchers at the People’s Liberation Army National Defense University discussed the impact of the US delivery of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to Ukraine and whether the Chinese military should be concerned. was analyzed.

“In the future, should HIMARS dare to intervene in Taiwan, what was once known as an ‘explosive tool’ will suffer a different fate in front of various opponents.

The article highlights China’s own advanced rocket system backed by reconnaissance drones and notes that Ukraine’s success with HIMARS relies on US sharing of target information and intelligence via Starlink. Did.

PLA analysts have long worried about U.S. military superiority, according to four diplomats, including two military officials. It sharpened their focus by providing a window into what they could not overwhelm.

There are obvious comparisons to Taiwan in that scenario, but there are differences, especially given the island’s vulnerability to a Chinese blockade that could push intervening forces into a confrontation.

Western countries, by contrast, can supply Ukraine overland via their European neighbors.

Journals reviewed by Reuters make relatively few references to Taiwan, but diplomats and foreign academics following the study noted that China’s defense analysts have provided separate internal reports to senior political and military leaders. He says he has a duty to provide Reuters did not have access to these internal reports.

Taiwan’s Defense Minister Qiu Guocheng said in February that the Chinese military had learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that any attack on Taiwan would have to be swift to succeed. Taiwan is also studying the conflict to update its own combat strategy.

Several articles analyze the strengths of the Ukrainian resistance, including special forces sabotage inside Russia, civilian espionage using the Telegram app, and the defense of the Azokhstyr steelworks in Mariupol.

Russia’s successes have also been noted, including tactical strikes using Iskandar ballistic missiles.

Tactical Missile Technology, a magazine published by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, a state-owned weapons maker, conducted a detailed analysis of Iskander, but only partially published it.

Many other articles focused on the mistakes of the Russian invading forces, one in the Tank Warfare Journal identifying outdated tactics and lack of unified command, another in the Electronic Warfare Journal, Russia’s communication interference is insufficient to counter NATO intelligence, it said. Ukrainians leading to a costly ambush.

A paper published earlier this year by researchers at the People’s Armed Police Institute of Technology evaluated the insights China can gain from the Kerch Bridge bombing in Russian-occupied Crimea. However, a full analysis has not been published.

Beyond the battlefield, research covers information warfare, with researchers concluding that Ukraine and its allies have won.

A February article by researchers at the People’s Liberation Army University of Information Technology called on China to pre-emptively prepare for a global public backlash similar to that experienced by Russia.

China should “promote the construction of cognitive conflict platforms” and strengthen social media controls to prevent Western information campaigns from influencing the public during conflicts, it said.